New power relations after 1989
The fall of the Berlin Wall (1989) and the break-up of the USSR (1991) ended the bipolar Cold War world. For about a decade the USA was the only superpower (a unipolar moment). Since then the world has become multipolar: the USA, China, Russia, the European Union, India and regional powers all compete.
- Geopolitics = how geography (location, resources, routes) shapes power and rivalry.
- Rivalries now involve trade, technology, energy, sea routes and information, not only armies.
- Globalisation links economies, so a war in one region affects food and fuel prices everywhere.
Causes and types of conflict
Main causes
- Resources: water, oil, gas, minerals, farmland.
- Identity: ethnic, religious or national groups who feel threatened or excluded.
- Territory: disputed land or the wish to break away or unite.
- Weak or failed states: no working government, armed groups fill the gap.
- Outside powers: other states send weapons, money or troops.
Types
- Interstate war: armies of states fight (e.g. Gulf War 1991; Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine from 2022).
- Civil (intrastate) war: groups inside one country fight (e.g. Syria from 2011, Yemen from 2014).
- Terrorism: violence against civilians to spread fear for political aims (e.g. 11 September 2001).
- Hybrid war: mixes armed force, cyber attacks, disinformation and economic pressure.
War is political: as an old saying of strategy puts it, war continues politics by other means, so lasting peace also needs a political answer.
The human cost: genocide, crimes against humanity, refugees
- Genocide: acts meant to destroy, in whole or part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group (1948 UN Convention). Courts have ruled that genocide happened in Rwanda (1994) and at Srebrenica, Bosnia (1995).
- Crimes against humanity: widespread or systematic attacks on civilians, such as murder, torture, enslavement or forced deportation.
- War crimes: serious breaks of the laws of war (international humanitarian law, Geneva Conventions), such as attacking hospitals or killing prisoners.
Refugees flee across borders; internally displaced people flee inside their own country. Both numbers have risen sharply since 2010.
Case study: the wars in former Yugoslavia (1991–2001)
After communist rule ended, nationalist leaders turned a shared state into rival ethnic states. War followed in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo; about 130,000 people died and millions fled. NATO intervened, peace came through the Dayton Agreement (1995), and a UN court (ICTY) tried leaders for war crimes and genocide.
Peacekeeping, international justice and the Middle East
- UN Security Council: can impose sanctions or approve the use of force; its 5 permanent members have a veto.
- UN peacekeepers (blue helmets) watch ceasefires, protect civilians and help elections. India is one of the largest contributors of troops.
- International Court of Justice settles disputes between states; the International Criminal Court (2002) tries individuals for genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and aggression.
- Universal jurisdiction: some national courts can try the worst crimes even if they happened abroad and involved foreigners.
Middle East conflicts and peace attempts
The region has seen the Arab–Israeli wars (1948, 1967, 1973), the Iran–Iraq war (1980–88), the Gulf War (1991), the Iraq war (2003) and the Syrian civil war (2011). Peace attempts include the Egypt–Israel treaty (1979), the Oslo Accords between Israel and the PLO (1993), the Israel–Jordan treaty (1994) and later normalisation agreements. The Israeli–Palestinian conflict over land, security, refugees and Jerusalem is still unresolved, with renewed war from October 2023.
Key formulas and definitions
- Bipolar (to 1991) → unipolar moment (1990s) → multipolar (today)
- Causes RITWO: Resources, Identity, Territory, Weak state, Outside powers
- Types: interstate war, civil war, terrorism, hybrid / cyber
- Genocide = intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group
- Refugee = crossed a border; internally displaced = still inside the country
- Peace tools: diplomacy, mediation, sanctions, peacekeeping, courts, rebuilding
Worked examples
1. Classify: groups inside one country fight for control of the government, and neighbours send weapons.
A civil (intrastate) war that has become internationalised because outside powers take part.
2. A person flees fighting in their city and lives in a camp in another region of the same country. Refugee or internally displaced?
Internally displaced person (IDP): they have not crossed an international border.
3. Why did the end of the Cold War not bring lasting world peace?
The superpower rivalry ended, but old tensions over identity and territory returned (e.g. Yugoslavia), some states became weak, new powers rose and new threats such as terrorism and cyber attacks appeared.
Common mistakes
- Thinking every conflict has one cause. Most combine several causes.
- Using 'genocide' for any massacre. Genocide needs intent to destroy a protected group; other mass crimes may be crimes against humanity or war crimes.
- Confusing the ICJ (disputes between states) with the ICC (trials of individuals).
- Thinking a ceasefire is the same as peace. A ceasefire only stops fighting; peace needs an agreement and rebuilding.