Russia 10 класс Probability and Statistics (basic)

Chapters: 4

1. Descriptive statistics

Data and measures

Measures of Dispersion: Range, Mean Deviation, Variance and SD – Dispersion means spread: how far the values sit from the centre. Range = largest − smallest. Mean deviation = average distance from the mean (or median). Variance = average of squared distances from the mean. Standard deviation = √variance. The same ideas work for grouped data when every term is multiplied by its frequency.

Probability · Operations on events · Conditional probability

Probability: Events, Algebra of Events and Axioms – An event is any subset of the sample space S. From events A and B we build new events: not A (A′), A and B (A ∩ B), A or B (A ∪ B). Events are mutually exclusive if they share no outcome and exhaustive if together they cover S. The axiomatic approach says every P(E) ≥ 0, P(S) = 1, and for mutually exclusive A, B, P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B). From these follow P(A′) = 1 − P(A) and P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B).
Conditional Probability, Multiplication Rule and Independent Events – Conditional probability is the chance of A when we already know B has happened. We throw away every outcome outside B and count again: P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) ÷ P(B). Turned around, this gives the multiplication rule P(A ∩ B) = P(B)·P(A|B). If knowing B does not change the chance of A, the events are independent and P(A ∩ B) = P(A)·P(B).

Combinatorics · Bernoulli trials

Permutations and Combinations – Counting without listing is the heart of this chapter. The fundamental principle of counting says: if one job can be done in m ways and the next in n ways, both together can be done in m × n ways. n! (n factorial) is 1 × 2 × … × n, with 0! = 1. A permutation is an arrangement, where order matters: the number of ways to arrange r things out of n different things is ⁿPᵣ = n!/(n − r)!. A combination is a selection, where order does not matter: ⁿCᵣ = n!/(r!(n − r)!). Each selection of r things can be arranged in r! ways, so ⁿPᵣ = ⁿCᵣ × r!. Useful facts: ⁿCᵣ = ⁿCₙ₋ᵣ and ⁿCᵣ + ⁿCᵣ₋₁ = ⁿ⁺¹Cᵣ. When some objects repeat, divide by the factorial of each repeat count.
Binomial Distribution – Repeat the same yes/no trial n times, independently, with the same chance of success p each time. The number of successes X follows the binomial distribution B(n, p): P(X = k) = ⁿCₖ pᵏ qⁿ⁻ᵏ with q = 1 − p. Its mean is np and its variance is npq.

Distributions

Random Variables and Probability Distributions – A random variable X gives a number to every outcome of a chance experiment. A discrete random variable takes separate values; its probability distribution lists each value x with its probability P(X = x), and these add up to 1. The mean (expected value) is E(X) = Σ x·P(x). The variance Var(X) = E(X²) − [E(X)]² measures spread, and the standard deviation is its square root.