Development paths: a short timeline
All three started with similar problems: low income, mostly farm jobs, poor health and schooling.
- India: independence 1947; First Five Year Plan 1951; mixed economy with a big public sector; economic reforms (LPG) from 1991.
- Pakistan: 1947; mixed economy; five year plans from 1956; Green Revolution and nationalisation in the 1970s; reforms from 1988.
- China: People's Republic 1949; command economy; First Five Year Plan 1953; the Great Leap Forward (1958) tried to industrialise fast with backyard furnaces and communes, but farm output fell and famine followed; the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution (1966–76) sent students and experts to villages; reforms from 1978 in phases: first farming (land given to households), then industry and foreign trade; Special Economic Zones for foreign investors.
Growth of GDP
After reforms, China grew near 10% a year for about three decades (roughly 1980–2010), and became the second-largest economy by market prices and largest by purchasing power. India's growth rose from about 3.5% in early decades to around 6–7% after 1991. Pakistan's growth was slower and uneven, around 4–5% on average, with falls in some periods.
Why China grew faster
- Strong base in education and health before reforms (built by the state).
- Land reforms and communes had spread basic services widely.
- Reforms in stages, starting with farming; Special Economic Zones attracted foreign investment; export-led factory growth.
Why Pakistan lagged
- Political instability and frequent policy changes.
- Depended on foreign aid and remittances; farm growth depended on good harvests.
- Low spending on education and health; slow technology progress.
Demographic indicators: population
- Size: India and China each have over 1.4 billion people; India overtook China around 2023. Pakistan has about one-sixth of India's population.
- Growth: China's one-child policy (1979) slowed growth sharply; it now has more old people and fewer young workers. Pakistan's population grows fastest of the three.
- Density: India has the most people per sq km, China the least of the three.
- Sex ratio (women per 1,000 men): low in all three and lowest in China and Pakistan, showing preference for sons.
- Fertility: China lowest, Pakistan highest.
- Urbanisation: China most urban (about two-thirds), India and Pakistan about one-third.
Sectoral structure: where output and jobs come from
- China: industry and manufacturing are large; services are now the biggest share of GDP. Farming's share of GDP is small (under 10%), though about a quarter of workers are still on farms.
- India: services are the largest part of GDP (over half); industry about a quarter; farming under a fifth of GDP but employs over 40% of workers. India moved from farming to services without a big factory phase.
- Pakistan: services are largest, but farming is still about a fifth or more of GDP and employs over a third of workers; industry is smaller.
Moving workers from low-output farming to industry and services raises productivity. China did this fastest through manufacturing.
Human development indicators
UNDP's Human Development Index (HDI) combines a long and healthy life (life expectancy), knowledge (years of schooling) and income (per capita income in PPP). Recent reports place China in the high human development group, India in the medium group and Pakistan in the low group.
- Life expectancy: China near 78 years, India near 68–70, Pakistan near 66.
- Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births): China lowest, India in the middle, Pakistan highest.
- Adult literacy: China above 95%, India around three-quarters, Pakistan below two-thirds.
- Poverty: extreme poverty fell sharply in China; it has also fallen a lot in India and Pakistan.
- Sanitation and clean water: improved in all three; India made big gains in toilets after 2014.
Liberty indicators
Some economists say HDI should also count freedoms, such as democratic rights and freedom of speech. India, a democracy, would score well on these even where its HDI is lower.
Appraisal: what can we learn?
- China: fast growth and big gains in health and schooling, but inside a one-party system; some critics raise concerns about freedoms and environment.
- India: slower but steady, democratic growth; strong services; needs more manufacturing jobs, better health and schooling.
- Pakistan: needs stable politics, more investment in people and less dependence on aid and remittances.
Numbers change every year; for exams, remember the order and the reasons rather than exact decimals.
Key formulas and definitions
- Reform years: China 1978, Pakistan 1988, India 1991.
- HDI = combines life expectancy, education (years of schooling) and income per head (PPP).
- Great Leap Forward (1958): China's drive for fast industrialisation via communes and small furnaces.
- Cultural Revolution (1966–76): students and experts sent to rural areas.
- One-child policy (1979): China's rule to limit family size (later relaxed).
- Special Economic Zones: areas with easy rules to attract foreign investment.
Worked examples
1. An economy of ₹100 grows 10% a year for 3 years. What is it after 3 years?
100 × 1.1 × 1.1 × 1.1 = ₹133.1. Fast compounding explains China's rapid rise.
2. Same ₹100 grows 6% a year for 3 years. Compare with 10%.
100 × 1.06³ ≈ ₹119.1. The 10% economy is about ₹14 bigger after only 3 years.
3. A country has 1,440 million people on 3.29 million sq km. Find density.
1,440 ÷ 3.29 ≈ 438 people per sq km (India is of this order, the densest of the three).
4. In a country, farming is 18% of GDP but employs 44% of workers. What does this show?
Output per farm worker is low (disguised unemployment); moving workers to other sectors could raise productivity.
5. Rank India, Pakistan, China on HDI and on life expectancy.
Both: China > India > Pakistan.
6. Rule of 70: at 7% growth, how many years to double GDP? At 10%?
70 ÷ 7 = 10 years; 70 ÷ 10 = 7 years.
Common mistakes
- Mixing reform years. China 1978, Pakistan 1988, India 1991.
- Thinking India's growth was led by industry like China. India's was led by services.
- Saying China still has the largest population. India overtook it around 2023.
- Treating HDI as income only. It also includes health and education.